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| Construction Machinery: Full recovery of the industry |
| Time:2018-3-21 11:42:23 Views:1753 |
| In the four Juglas cycles since the United States began in 1982, the overall fluctuations of the machinery and equipment industry are much higher than the fluctuations in the growth rate of GDP and fixed asset investment. Since the end of 2016, the view of the opening of a new round of the global Juglaring cycle has been In the market, it is widely discussed that the construction machinery industry is facing a full recovery. In addition, environmental protection policies promote product updates, infrastructure investment growth is stable, and implementation of the “Belt and Road Initiative” also provides new impetus to the development of the industry. Judging from the stock price performance, in the past six months, the price trend of individual stocks in the construction machinery sector has significantly outperformed the broader market, benefiting from higher prices and sales volume, and has recently been affected by the turmoil in the global financial market. Once the stock market stabilizes, the relevant stock market will stabilize. Leading stocks or an ideal mid-line buying opportunity. Juglas cycle force In terms of historical sales, the global sales of construction machinery experienced a positive growth for the first time in 2016 after experiencing a decline for five consecutive years. According to statistics, excavator sales in the world increased by 1.73% year-on-year in 2016, and it is expected to reach 24% in 2017. According to this market analysis, domestic construction machinery started a new round of the Zhu Gula cycle from the second half of 2016. From 2006 to 2016, construction machinery experienced a ten-year complete cycle of substantial expansion of production capacity to basically clearing inventory. Ten years can be divided into three phases: 1) From 2006 to 2009, with a large number of investment in real estate and infrastructure construction, construction machinery also entered the investment cycle. The net value of fixed assets in the industry continued to increase. The total value of fixed assets and construction-in-progress of key enterprises in construction machinery continued to increase. Capital in 2009 The growth rate of expenditure exceeds 30%. 2) From 2010 to 2011, construction machinery will enter the production capacity and credit expansion period. The high profitability in the previous period and the continuous increase in downstream demand stimulated major manufacturers to produce a large amount of production, and attracted customers by reducing the downpayment ratio of credit sales and extending the repayment period. 3) 2012-2016 is the destocking period of the industry. During the five years, sales of main products of construction machinery declined year by year. Under the squeeze of the secondary market, the core host manufacturers' operating income and gross profit margins decreased, and the accounts receivable turnover rate and inventory turnover rate also fell sharply. Some of the core OEMs had to achieve capacity reduction and report restoration by reducing capital expenditures and selling receivables. From July 2016, sales of the construction machinery industry began to rebound. The year-on-year growth rate of monthly sales of excavators exceeded 10%. Compared with 2016, excavator sales doubled in November 2017, and crane sales in October 2017 also increased by 153% year-on-year. At present, the growth rate of construction machinery remains low. Some industry insiders believe that according to the logic of matching with GDP growth, there has been a scissor gap in the amount of construction machinery. For the logic of demand side of construction machinery, different factors have also been added in this new round of cycle. First, the “One Belt and One Road” initiative has brought a lot of overseas demand. Most of the countries along the “Belt and Road” countries are lagging behind in infrastructure construction and there is a huge market for construction machinery. The “Belt and Road” projects are mostly long-term projects and are expected to bring about continuous output of production capacity in the next three years. Second, the demand for equipment replacement brought by environmental pressures under the new era, in response to the “energy-saving emission reduction, green manufacturing” target, some equipment that do not meet environmental standards will also exit the market and face upgrading. Third, investment in infrastructure construction has grown steadily. Infrastructure investment has always maintained a growth rate of around 15%, creating new demand. The PPP model has been continuously improved and standardized in the development process, and a large number of government projects have been launched. Take the excavator as an example, the sales volume trend in 2017 is basically in line with the growth rate of PPP investment growth. Looking ahead to 2018, the world's major construction machinery market is expected to continue its recovery. In 2016, demand for construction machinery in emerging countries represented by India increased, and sales in developed regions such as North America and Japan also picked up. In 2017, the year-on-year growth of Chinese excavator sales reached 99%. In the future, investment in downstream infrastructure construction in emerging countries, represented by China and India, is expected to maintain high growth, thus injecting sustained momentum into the recovery of the construction machinery market. |
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