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| Construction machinery will maintain steady growth in the next three years |
| Time:2019-2-18 10:40:11 Views:1506 |
| In July, 24 major excavator manufacturers included in the statistics sold more than 11,100 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 45.28%, and sales reached a record high in the same month for the third consecutive month. In the first seven months, the cumulative sales of excavators exceeded 131,000 units, a significant increase of 58.65% compared with approximately 82,700 units in the same period last year. The possibility of a record high for the whole year was further improved from last month. In July, 11 major bulldozer manufacturers in China included a total of 480 bulldozers of various types, up 38.8% year-on-year. From January to July, the cumulative sales of bulldozers reached 4,950 units, an increase of 36.89%. In July of 2018, sales data of various types of construction machinery showed a rising trend. It is expected that the rapid growth of the industry this year has been established. According to analysis by research institutions, the construction machinery industry is expected to maintain steady growth in the next three years based on the six major factors of equipment inventory update, new equipment requirements and the company's own development. According to research data, 80% of the future demand of the construction machinery industry is due to equipment upgrades and upgrades. This part of the demand is relatively stable and the downside risk is small. Generally speaking, the life cycle of construction machinery products is 8~10 years. The sales peak of the previous round is concentrated around 2011, and 2017~2019 is the peak stage of engineering machinery equipment entering the phase-out and update iteration. According to statistics, the current construction machinery industry has more than 7 million units in the market, and about 2.4 million old equipment are facing elimination. This provides market space for new machine sales and further stimulates industry demand. At the same time, both the national and local requirements for environmental protection are becoming more and more strict. Most of the existing equipment in the market belongs to the national two and national three emissions. Even if it is less than the age of the aircraft, it may be forcibly banned due to environmental considerations. Therefore, the environmental protection policy and the age of the machine have further expanded the demand for the upgrading of construction machinery. In the first half of 2018, China's fixed asset investment growth rate was 6%, infrastructure investment increased by 7.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly lower than expected, which also affected the overall development of the Chinese economy to some extent. To this end, in late July, the State Council meeting and the Politburo meeting all proposed the development tone of “guarantee infrastructure to promote investment”. More active fiscal policies and PPP project investment recovery, coupled with a loose monetary policy, all of which ensured the smooth progress of infrastructure projects, but also eased investors' concerns about the slowdown in the industry. Based on years of development experience, China's construction machinery sales and fixed assets investment are positively related, it is expected that with the construction of various infrastructure projects in September, the construction machinery industry will bring tangible sales increase. In recent years, with the aging of China's population, labor shortage, labor costs have risen remarkably, and the trend of mechanical replacement is obvious. Previously, road expansion, farmland construction and water conservancy facilities in China's rural market relied mainly on labor, but now the young rural labor force is missing, and most young people are seldom willing to do this work. Labor costs have risen sharply, which has spawned mechanical replacement labor. the trend of. In the past, the per capita possession of excavators in China was low, and the penetration rate of construction machinery in the future is expected to continue to increase. Moreover, not only in the field of construction machinery, the trend of mechanical substitution in various industrial fields is very obvious. After the financial crisis in 2008, the global economic growth stall led to a decline in demand for mineral resources. The global mining industry showed a trend of stagnant growth, falling investment, and clear production capacity. Since 2017, the global mining industry has shown a warming trend. Taking China's data for the first half of 2018 as an example, from January to June, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.3 percentage points; the investment in the mining industry increased from the downward trend, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The recovery of the mining industry is of great significance to boost the demand for mining equipment. Previously, mining equipment had been monopolized by foreign companies such as Carter and Komatsu. In recent years, with the development of domestic construction machinery, the competitiveness of mining equipment produced by Xugong, Sanyi and other construction machinery enterprises has been continuously improved, tearing open the door of the mining machinery market, which is conducive to the entry of domestic equipment. The improvement of the overall level of China's construction machinery industry has not only improved the domestic market share, but also achieved remarkable results in opening up overseas markets. In the development of overseas markets, countries along the “Belt and Road” have become the most important target markets for construction machinery enterprises in China. China's construction machinery and equipment are frequently seen in the construction of China's old railways, China-Thailand railway, Hungarian railway, and Yawan high-speed railway. Moreover, the emerging markets represented by India have low urbanization rates, poor infrastructure construction, and large demand for construction machinery, which is more conducive to the export of construction machinery in China. It is felt that in the winter of the five-year industry, even if the industry situation develops again, China's construction machinery enterprises still maintain a cautious attitude in production, sales and industry pre-judgment. The good development trend of the construction machinery industry has not made enterprises forget about blindly increasing production capacity. On the contrary, most enterprises in the industry have begun to strengthen cash management and improve quality customers. The production and sales methods of fine water flow also help to reduce profit margin shrinkage and accounts receivable. risk. In summary, based on the assumption of stable operation of the domestic economy and continuous transformation and upgrading, China's construction machinery industry will not decline at least significantly in the next three years and can maintain steady growth. |
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